SPC MD 1732

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MD 1732 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT Mesoscale Discussion 1732 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Areas affected…Northern New York and Vermont Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible Valid 101748Z – 101915Z Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent SUMMARY…Storm coverage is expected to increase through the afternoon with primarily a damaging wind threat. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible. DISCUSSION…Storms have started to develop along and ahead of a cold front in eastern Ontario. These storms are expected to increase in coverage an intensity over the next 1 to 2 hours. Instability is not that strong at this time as surface temperatures are only near 70 degrees with dewpoints in the mid 50s. However, moisture advection from the southwest, cooling temperatures aloft, and additional heating ahead of these storms should lead to continued destabilization through the afternoon. As MLCAPE increases to around 1000 J/kg, expect storm intensity to also increase. A very strong wind field (>50 kts less than 1km above the surface per RAP soundings) will support a damaging wind threat with any storms which develop. This will be especially likely with any linear/bowing segments. Expect this storm activity to be strongly diurnally driven with the threat decreasing considerably by mid/late evening. ..Bentley/Thompson.. 10/10/2020 …Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product… ATTN…WFO…GYX…BTV…ALY…BGM…BUF… LAT…LON 44517599 44937520 45057464 45037312 45057256 45027193 44267205 43597241 43507342 43467433 43467530 43547625 43817635 44087635 44517599 Read more
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