SPC MD 1668

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MD 1668 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN ARKANSAS…NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE Mesoscale Discussion 1668 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 Areas affected…Northern Louisiana…southern Arkansas…northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely Valid 021735Z – 022000Z Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent SUMMARY…Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from northern Louisiana to southern Arkansas, northwest Mississippi into western Tennessee this afternoon. A few locally strong to damaging wind gusts will be possible, but overall threat does not appear to warrant a WW. DISCUSSION…Early this afternoon a slow-moving outflow boundary extends from northwest LA, through southern AR into western TN. The atmosphere south of this boundary is very moist with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but diabatic warming of the surface layer should boost MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg this afternoon. Vertical shear is weak, but a belt of 35-45 kt southwest winds in the 2-5 km layer along southern periphery of a shortwave trough is spreading northeastward through this region. Multicell storm modes are expected, but some of this activity might become capable of producing a few locally strong gusts as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen. ..Dial/Grams.. 09/02/2020 …Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product… ATTN…WFO…OHX…MEG…JAN…LZK…SHV… LAT…LON 32369338 33579316 34389198 35019117 35558980 36338894 36398721 35748795 34668928 34119031 33089204 32369338 Read more
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