SPC MD 1558

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MD 1558 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE Mesoscale Discussion 1558 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Areas affected…Parts of the Florida Panhandle Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely Valid 241551Z – 241715Z Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent SUMMARY…A tornado or two may accompany the stronger circulations that move ashore over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION…An east-west band of relatively more intense convection, with embedded areas of occasionally strong low-level rotation, is currently approaching the shore of the western Florida Panhandle. Despite overcast skies and limited surface heating over land, surface temperatures/dewpoints in the upper 70s are contributing to MLCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Low-level shear is relatively modest (i.e. KTLH and Mesoanalysis depicting over 100 m2/s2 0-1km SRH). As such, a couple of the more organized, intense low-level circulations may produce a couple tornadoes as the aforementioned band moves ashore. With the general motion of Tropical Storm Marco expected to remain westerly (along with an overall weakening trend in tropical cyclone intensity expected), the band of storms is expected to become increasingly displaced with time from the stronger kinematic wind field. As such, the severe threat is expected to remain relatively isolated in nature. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/24/2020 …Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product… ATTN…WFO…TAE…MOB…LIX… LAT…LON 30208847 30758837 30908772 30958750 30978614 30988574 30728464 30108424 29618432 29618500 29888567 30088651 30098739 30208847 Read more
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