SPC MD 1402

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MD 1402 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA Mesoscale Discussion 1402 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0718 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020 Areas affected…Portions of western and central North Dakota Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely Valid 050018Z – 050215Z Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent SUMMARY…A few storms will be capable of large hail this evening as well as damaging wind gusts. Some upscale growth and organization along an effective boundary in central North Dakota is possible, which would mean a marginally increased wind gust threat. Limited MLCAPE and and organizing low-level jet decrease confidence in the need for a WW. DISCUSSION…A mid-level shortwave continues to approach northwestern North Dakota this evening. Convection has begun to move in from Canada with further development occurring along the cold front and along an effective warm front to the east. Modifying the 00Z observed BIS sounding suggests 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of this activity with around 30 kts of effective shear. With a mid-level lapse rate near 7 C/km, some large hail is possible with more intense/discrete storms. Given the upper-level forcing, this activity will likely last into the evening, perhaps 9-10 CDT, until encountering more stable conditions to the east. If storms can cluster and grow upscale, a small linear segment may progress southeast along the effective boundary, marginally increasing the wind gusts threat. Lack of a more buoyant airmass and a weak/negligible low-level jet this evening lend to uncertainty with how far southeast and how severe the activity will be. At present, no WW is anticipated. ..Wendt/Hart.. 08/05/2020 …Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product… ATTN…WFO…BIS… LAT…LON 48670340 49030316 49040136 48820078 47900014 46769998 46410097 46420181 46900309 47550353 48670340 Read more
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