SPC MD 1065

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MD 1065 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341… FOR AREAS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY Mesoscale Discussion 1065 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017 Areas affected…Areas from northeast Kansas to the mid Mississippi Valley Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341… Valid 170414Z – 170545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341 continues. SUMMARY…A powerful mesoscale convective system is racing southeast this evening, while maintaining a threat of numerous damaging gusts, wind-driven hail, and a tornado or two. One or more downstream watches will likely be needed over the next several hours. DISCUSSION…An expanding line of severe thunderstorms is dropping south/southeast across the mid Missouri Valley this evening, aided by strong storm-relative inflow in the lowest approximately 2 km, based on recent EAX VWP data. This convective system has expanded in length recently, as the downwind-propagating component has accelerated eastward across northern Missouri, while very robust upwind propagation (with multiple embedded supercells) has advanced into northern Kansas. Across this line, a continued threat of numerous severe/damaging gusts (a few of which will likely be 75-80+ mph) will exist. Indeed, St. Joseph MO gusted to 66kt (76mph) at 0347Z (1047pm CDT). While surface cooling and drier boundary-layer conditions have brought about a quicker increase in inhibition across eastern Missouri, steep lapse rates and forced ascent along outflow could maintain a threat of damaging winds beyond the eastern bound of the watch. Therefore, a new downstream watch may be considered. Farther west, the combination of embedded organized updrafts, ample mid-level buoyancy, and strongly forced low-level ascent should be sufficient to overcome inhibition and spread the severe threat to the southern edge of the watch later tonight. Therefore, downstream watch issuance across southern Missouri and far southeast Kansas will likely be needed within the next 1-2 hours. ..Picca.. 06/17/2017 …Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product… ATTN…WFO…LSX…DVN…SGF…DMX…EAX…TOP…ICT… LAT…LON 37689401 37969575 38799683 39259713 39389722 39779740 39919717 39929660 39819533 39869438 40179399 40599343 40519224 39899177 38759183 37739329 37689401 Read more
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