SPC MD 1014

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MD 1014 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES…TX SOUTH PLAINS…AND WESTERN OK Mesoscale Discussion 1014 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Areas affected…Portions of the TX/OK Panhandles…TX South Plains…and western OK Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely Valid 132014Z – 132245Z Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent SUMMARY…Severe thunderstorm development will likely occur in the 21-22Z time frame, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be likely. Significant severe hail will be possible. DISCUSSION…High-based cumulus development continues in proximity to diurnal-heating bolstered dryline circulations from the central OK Panhandle to western/central parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains. As MLCINH accompanying a warm elevated mixed layer continues to erode, thunderstorm development will be likely in the 21-22Z time frame, with activity spreading east-northeastward into the evening hours east of the sharpening dryline. East of the dryline, surface dewpoints have held in the lower/middle 60s beneath 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates, yielding SBCAPE locally upwards of 3000-4000 J/kg. Furthermore, with 35-45 kt of effective shear — enhanced by a vertically veering wind profile and in proximity to a midlevel speed maximum crossing the area per water vapor imagery — sustained supercells with significant severe hail will be likely. Some risk for giant hail (4-inch hail) cannot be ruled out. Into the late afternoon hours and the evening, strengthening convective outflow with merging outflows may support isolated to widely scattered severe wind gusts, as convection spreads into western OK. Given the substantial buoyancy, and increase in effective SRH early this evening coincident with the incipient stages of nocturnal decoupling of the boundary layer, a tornado could also occur. ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/13/2017 …Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product… ATTN…WFO…OUN…LUB…AMA… LAT…LON 33230208 33910223 35230181 36800067 36809973 36219961 34379992 33340050 33060161 33230208 Read more
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